← Explore · Polymarket · Market 608545
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 21.9%, down 5.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability21.9%
Bid / ask / mid20.1¢ / 20.2¢ / 20.2¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h-5.20pt
Change 7d-6.90pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$151,857
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,238 / $2,948
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)14
Liquidity score51.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 24 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.33
RSI (14, hourly)24.1
Realized vol 7d0.56pt
Change 1h-0.40pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.