← Explore · Polymarket · Market 608547
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 69.7%, up 2.7pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability69.7%
Bid / ask / mid69.9¢ / 70.0¢ / 70.0¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h+2.70pt
Change 7d+4.90pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 61/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$119,236
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14,411 / $9,216
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)14
Liquidity score61.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 66 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.70
RSI (14, hourly)66.0
Realized vol 7d0.54pt
Change 1h-0.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.