← Explore · Polymarket · Market 608565
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.3%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.3%
Bid / ask / mid2.2¢ / 2.3¢ / 2.3¢
Spread0.1¢ (4.4%)
Change 24h-0.40pt
Change 7d-0.20pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$141,793
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,586 / $4,571
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score52.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 20 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.52
RSI (14, hourly)20.0
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h-0.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.