← Explore · Polymarket · Market 609655
US recession by end of 2026?
6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 32% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,172
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,719 / $596
Imbalance32% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.89
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.15pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 148d 7h.
Time to resolve148d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%