Refacto TerminalPolymarket
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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 609655

US recession by end of 2026?

6.5% implied · bid 6.0¢ · ask 7.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 8.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (15.4%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 32% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,172
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,719 / $596
Imbalance32% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score46.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.89
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.15pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 148d 7h.

Time to resolve148d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth