← Explore · Polymarket · Market 616903
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
4.5% implied · bid 4.0¢ · ask 5.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability4.0%
Bid / ask / mid4.0¢ / 5.0¢ / 4.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h-3.00pt
Change 7d-4.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$127,881
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,424 / $7,918
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score49.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.07
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.34pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 117d 7h.
Time to resolve117d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%