← Explore · Polymarket · Market 618454
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.4%, down 0.6pt over 24h, on a 1.2¢ spread.
Implied probability7.4%
Bid / ask / mid7.4¢ / 8.6¢ / 8.0¢
Spread1.2¢ (15.0%)
Change 24h-0.60pt
Change 7d-4.30pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$170
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$239 / $145
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.15
RSI (14, hourly)48.1
Realized vol 7d0.75pt
Change 1h-0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.