← Explore · Polymarket · Market 628940
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.5%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability3.5%
Bid / ask / mid3.2¢ / 3.6¢ / 3.4¢
Spread0.4¢ (11.8%)
Change 24h-0.35pt
Change 7d-0.25pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9,406
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$382 / $3,680
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.91
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.08pt
Change 1h+0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.