← Explore · Polymarket · Market 628940

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

4.4% implied · bid 4.3¢ · ask 4.5¢

The market prices this at 4.5%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability4.5%

Bid / ask / mid4.3¢ / 4.5¢ / 4.4¢

Spread0.2¢ (4.5%)

Change 24h-0.15pt

Change 7d-0.35pt

Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,965

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$755 / $2,380

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score50.6 / 100

RSI 29 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.21

RSI (14, hourly)28.6

Realized vol 7d0.06pt

Change 1h-0.15pt

Resolves in 59d 7h.

Time to resolve59d 7h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%