← Explore · Polymarket · Market 628941

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

96.2% implied · bid 95.9¢ · ask 96.5¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 96.7%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.

Implied probability96.7%

Bid / ask / mid95.9¢ / 96.5¢ / 96.2¢

Spread0.6¢ (0.6%)

Change 24h+0.20pt

Change 7d+0.15pt

Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 97/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$11,431

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$21,453 / $3,440,371

Imbalance2% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score97.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 62 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean4.51

RSI (14, hourly)61.9

Realized vol 7d0.09pt

Change 1h+0.05pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 15d 3h.

Time to resolve15d 3h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (35)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.