← Explore · Polymarket · Market 629030

Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

49.5% implied · bid 49.0¢ · ask 50.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 49.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability49.0%

Bid / ask / mid49.0¢ / 50.0¢ / 49.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (2.0%)

Change 24h+3.00pt

Change 7d+2.00pt

Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 76/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$9,607

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$50,352 / $11,642

Imbalance5% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score76.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.97

RSI (14, hourly)100.0

Realized vol 7d0.34pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 0h.

Time to resolve0d 0h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (55)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.