← Explore · Polymarket · Market 629040

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

50.0% implied · bid 50.0¢ · ask 50.1¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 50.0%, down 3.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability50.0%

Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 50.1¢ / 50.0¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.2%)

Change 24h-3.30pt

Change 7d-2.40pt

Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 92/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$27,213

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$12,780 / $71,944

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score91.9 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 4 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.6σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.55

RSI (14, hourly)4.5

Realized vol 7d0.33pt

Change 1h-0.80pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 0d 0h.

Time to resolve0d 0h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (55)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.