← Explore · Polymarket · Market 629464

Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

93.3% implied · bid 93.0¢ · ask 93.5¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 92.6%, down 0.8pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.

Implied probability92.6%

Bid / ask / mid93.0¢ / 93.5¢ / 93.3¢

Spread0.5¢ (0.5%)

Change 24h-0.85pt

Change 7d-0.85pt

Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 77/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 9% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$1,056

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$22,130 / $36,563

Imbalance9% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score76.8 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 49 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.26

RSI (14, hourly)48.8

Realized vol 7d0.22pt

Change 1h-0.45pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 15d 5h.

Time to resolve15d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (25)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.