← Explore · Polymarket · Market 629465
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.5%, up 1.2pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability7.5%
Bid / ask / mid6.5¢ / 7.0¢ / 6.8¢
Spread0.5¢ (7.4%)
Change 24h+1.20pt
Change 7d+0.95pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$37,139
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,722 / $5,318
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score51.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 90 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.84
RSI (14, hourly)89.7
Realized vol 7d0.22pt
Change 1h+1.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.