← Explore · Polymarket · Market 630773

Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

37.5% implied · bid 37.0¢ · ask 38.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 38.0%, down 3.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability38.0%

Bid / ask / mid37.0¢ / 38.0¢ / 37.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (2.7%)

Change 24h-3.00pt

Change 7d-4.00pt

Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$16,997

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$56,366 / $77,354

Imbalance10% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 13 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.0σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-3.04

RSI (14, hourly)12.5

Realized vol 7d0.18pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 15d 5h.

Time to resolve15d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (25)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.