← Explore · Polymarket · Market 630924
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 73/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$34,135
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$51,157 / $5,738
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score73.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 6.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean6.91
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (25)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.