← Explore · Polymarket · Market 634974
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability26.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.0¢ / 26.0¢ / 25.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (3.9%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-3.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 20% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$11,037
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$95,792 / $50,468
Imbalance20% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 33 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.11
RSI (14, hourly)33.3
Realized vol 7d0.23pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 5h.
Time to resolve15d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.