← Explore · Polymarket · Market 634976

Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

73.5% implied · bid 73.0¢ · ask 74.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 74.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability74.0%

Bid / ask / mid73.0¢ / 74.0¢ / 73.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (1.4%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d+1.00pt

Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$6,652

Volume qualityPro

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$78,828 / $328,735

Imbalance12% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.5σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.46

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.10pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 15d 5h.

Time to resolve15d 5h

Resolution sourceunknown

Rules riskmedium (35)

Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth

Cost to trade

Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade

Longshot tax — return by price bucket

This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.

Who holds this

Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade

Other venues

Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade

How this settles

Settlement sourcesNot published.

DeadlineNot published.

Close → settlementNot published.

Summary

Not published.

Expanded rules

Not published.