Refacto TerminalPolymarket
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Polymarket · Market 637008

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

4.7% implied · bid 4.4¢ · ask 5.0¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 4.5%, down 0.6pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.

Implied probability4.5%
Bid / ask / mid4.4¢ / 5.0¢ / 4.7¢
Spread0.6¢ (12.8%)
Change 24h-0.60pt
Change 7d+0.35pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$476
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$307 / $44
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score47.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 34 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.0σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.02
RSI (14, hourly)34.2
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 35d 7h.

Time to resolve35d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth