← Explore · Polymarket · Market 665246
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.6%, down 0.9pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability5.6%
Bid / ask / mid4.7¢ / 5.5¢ / 5.1¢
Spread0.8¢ (15.7%)
Change 24h-0.85pt
Change 7d+0.35pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 47/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,799
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,740 / $826
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score47.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 8 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.63
RSI (14, hourly)8.3
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (60)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.