← Explore · Polymarket · Market 665374
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 16.0¢ / 15.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.5%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$22,264
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$61,906 / $49,445
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score95.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.35
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.30pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.