← Explore · Polymarket · Market 665374

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

13.5% implied · bid 13.0¢ · ask 14.0¢

The market prices this at 14.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability14.0%

Bid / ask / mid13.0¢ / 14.0¢ / 13.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (7.4%)

Change 24h-1.00pt

Change 7d+0.00pt

Deep and tight (score 95/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 20% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$277,635

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$89,813 / $85,029

Imbalance20% bid

Large trades (>$1k)10

Liquidity score95.0 / 100

RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.53

RSI (14, hourly)0.0

Realized vol 7d0.25pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 118d 12h.

Time to resolve118d 12h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%