← Explore · Polymarket · Market 665464
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.9%, up 4.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability7.9%
Bid / ask / mid6.6¢ / 6.7¢ / 6.7¢
Spread0.1¢ (1.5%)
Change 24h+4.15pt
Change 7d+4.05pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$102,803
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,582 / $2,261
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)4
Liquidity score51.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.55
RSI (14, hourly)53.4
Realized vol 7d1.18pt
Change 1h-1.90pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.