← Explore · Polymarket · Market 666861
Trump out as President before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.8%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability3.8%
Bid / ask / mid3.7¢ / 4.0¢ / 3.9¢
Spread0.3¢ (7.8%)
Change 24h-0.15pt
Change 7d+0.05pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 66/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$46,008
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$25,741 / $10,253
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score66.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.76
RSI (14, hourly)45.5
Realized vol 7d0.07pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (75)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.