← Explore · Polymarket · Market 676740
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.5%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability0.5%
Bid / ask / mid0.4¢ / 0.5¢ / 0.4¢
Spread0.1¢ (22.2%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d+0.10pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,105
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$791 / $252
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.90
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.03pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.