← Explore · Polymarket · Market 677026
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 25.7%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.
Implied probability25.7%
Bid / ask / mid24.3¢ / 26.4¢ / 25.4¢
Spread2.1¢ (8.3%)
Change 24h+0.40pt
Change 7d-14.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$159
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,055 / $1,192
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 63 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.47
RSI (14, hourly)63.2
Realized vol 7d1.78pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.