← Explore · Polymarket · Market 677356
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, down 1.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid8.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 9.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (31.6%)
Change 24h-1.50pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,795
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$95 / $15
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 56 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 4.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-4.30
RSI (14, hourly)55.6
Realized vol 7d0.21pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.