← Explore · Polymarket · Market 677407
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.1%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability3.1%
Bid / ask / mid2.5¢ / 3.1¢ / 2.8¢
Spread0.6¢ (21.4%)
Change 24h-0.75pt
Change 7d-1.90pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,465
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,170 / $1,547
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.30
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.14pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.