Refacto TerminalPolymarket
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Polymarket · Market 677407

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

6.9% implied · bid 6.3¢ · ask 7.4¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 6.4%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.

Implied probability6.4%
Bid / ask / mid6.3¢ / 7.4¢ / 6.9¢
Spread1.1¢ (16.1%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d-0.15pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5,523
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,721 / $1,613
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 60 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.45
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d0.10pt
Change 1h-0.05pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 118d 12h.

Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth