← Explore · Polymarket · Market 679018
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 46.3%, down 2.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability46.3%
Bid / ask / mid46.0¢ / 46.1¢ / 46.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h-2.20pt
Change 7d+4.20pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$64,293
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$161,340 / $285,996
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)9
Liquidity score99.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.41
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.30pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 181d 4h.
Time to resolve181d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.