← Explore · Polymarket · Market 679029
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.8%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability4.8%
Bid / ask / mid4.7¢ / 4.8¢ / 4.8¢
Spread0.1¢ (2.1%)
Change 24h+0.40pt
Change 7d+3.40pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$153,616
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,518 / $6,427
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)3
Liquidity score55.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 49 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.45
RSI (14, hourly)49.1
Realized vol 7d0.19pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 181d 4h.
Time to resolve181d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.