← Explore · Polymarket · Market 679030
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability11.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 72/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$75,175
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$38,568 / $16,114
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score72.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.15
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 181d 4h.
Time to resolve181d 4h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.