← Explore · Polymarket · Market 679030
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
12.5% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 13.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 12.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability12.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 13.0¢ / 12.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (8.0%)
Change 24h-1.00pt
Change 7d-2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$19,241
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$11,771 / $10,490
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score56.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.44
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 237d 7h.
Time to resolve237d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%