← Explore · Polymarket · Market 682708
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 49.9%, up 4.3pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability49.9%
Bid / ask / mid50.0¢ / 50.2¢ / 50.1¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h+4.35pt
Change 7d+3.60pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 72/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$88,553
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$25,297 / $19,889
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)12
Liquidity score71.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.52
RSI (14, hourly)59.8
Realized vol 7d0.72pt
Change 1h-1.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 4h.
Time to resolve8d 4h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.