← Explore · Polymarket · Market 690200
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.2%, up 2.5pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability11.2%
Bid / ask / mid9.2¢ / 12.2¢ / 10.7¢
Spread3.0¢ (28.0%)
Change 24h+2.50pt
Change 7d+2.15pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$147
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$86 / $35
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.78
RSI (14, hourly)53.1
Realized vol 7d2.08pt
Change 1h-0.80pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 71d 22h.
Time to resolve71d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.