← Explore · Polymarket · Market 690202
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 79.0%, up 0.9pt over 24h, on a 1.5¢ spread.
Implied probability79.0%
Bid / ask / mid79.1¢ / 80.6¢ / 79.8¢
Spread1.5¢ (1.9%)
Change 24h+0.90pt
Change 7d+4.25pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$52
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$260 / $325
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score42.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 58 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.28
RSI (14, hourly)58.3
Realized vol 7d1.23pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 71d 22h.
Time to resolve71d 22h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.