← Explore · Polymarket · Market 703257
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.5%, down 0.6pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability4.5%
Bid / ask / mid4.4¢ / 4.5¢ / 4.5¢
Spread0.1¢ (2.2%)
Change 24h-0.60pt
Change 7d-0.10pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$46,948
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$90,159 / $17,505
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)6
Liquidity score99.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.06
RSI (14, hourly)41.7
Realized vol 7d0.23pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 3h.
Time to resolve73d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.