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← Explore · Polymarket · Market 716823

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?

18.5% implied · bid 18.0¢ · ask 19.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 16.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability16.0%
Bid / ask / mid18.0¢ / 19.0¢ / 18.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.4%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+2.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$66
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,103 / $115
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.29
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.28pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 118d 12h.

Time to resolve118d 12h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth