← Explore · Polymarket · Market 789953
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
10.7% implied · bid 10.2¢ · ask 11.2¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.5%, up 1.3pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability11.5%
Bid / ask / mid10.2¢ / 11.2¢ / 10.7¢
Spread1.0¢ (9.3%)
Change 24h+1.35pt
Change 7d+1.45pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$22,346
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,146 / $173
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.22
RSI (14, hourly)79.5
Realized vol 7d0.24pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 15d 7h.
Time to resolve15d 7h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%