← Explore · Polymarket · Market 950852
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 5.0¢ spread.
Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid15.0¢ / 20.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread5.0¢ (28.6%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d-3.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 25/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,252
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$148 / $165
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score25.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.22
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.27pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 73d 5h.
Time to resolve73d 5h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.