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Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56%Flávio Bolsonaro41%Augusto Cury2%Renan Santos2%

$981K 24h vol

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen35%Édouard Philippe28%Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%David Lisnard4%

$771K 24h vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

14%chance · Yes

$278K 24h vol

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%Benjamin Netanyahu31%Naftali Bennett9%Avigdor Lieberman5%

$215K 24h vol

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)69%New People (NL)26%Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)4%Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%

$170K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson78%Ulf Kristersson22%Jimmie Åkesson0%Ebba Busch0%

$107K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202714%December 31, 20267%September 30, 20261%

$99K 24h vol

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei84%No Head of State5%Reza Pahlavi3%Mahmoud Ahmadinejad2%

$75K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

8%chance · Yes

$53K 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro84%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva13%Augusto Cury2%Renan Santos2%

$42K 24h vol

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya8%UNRWA5%Volodymyr Zelenskyy4%International Court of Justice4%

$35K 24h vol

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?

5-7%64%3-5%23%7%+14%<3%1%

$29K 24h vol

Berlin State Election Winner

Linke43%CDU41%AfD11%Grüne5%

$27K 24h vol

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3126%October 3112%

$26K 24h vol

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

5%chance · Yes

$24K 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Augusto Cury57%Renan Santos23%Ronaldo Caiado10%Pablo Marçal2%

$17K 24h vol

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva98%Flavio Bolsonaro96%Renan Santos2%Ronaldo Caiado1%

$15K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%chance · Yes

$11K 24h vol

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

13%chance · Yes

$9K 24h vol

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

25 bps increase98%No change1%50+ bps increase1%50+ bps decrease0%

$9K 24h vol

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202794%Turkey1%Switzerland1%US1%

$9K 24h vol

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China50%No meeting by December 3144%United States3%Russia2%

$9K 24h vol

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Linke Vote Share?

9-12%51%12-15%44%<9%4%15%+3%

$9K 24h vol

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

6%chance · Yes

$9K 24h vol

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?

7-9%58%5-7%28%9%+13%<5%1%

$8K 24h vol

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

83%chance · Yes

$8K 24h vol

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

AfD79%SPD21%CDU0%Grüne0%

$7K 24h vol

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

14%chance · Yes

$7K 24h vol

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

5%chance · Yes

$7K 24h vol

Who will attend King Harald V's funeral?

Jonas Gahr Støre99%King Carl XVI Gustaf98%Alexander Stubb98%Frank-Walter Steinmeier97%

$6K 24h vol

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

32%chance · Yes

$6K 24h vol

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

7%chance · Yes

$6K 24h vol

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

United Russia (ER)99%Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%New People (NL)0%Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)0%

$5K 24h vol

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

SPD78%Party A50%Party B50%Party C50%

$5K 24h vol

Will Russia capture Lyman by...?

December 3126%September 303%

$4K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

1%chance · Yes

$4K 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva <5%44%Lula da Silva 5-10%39%Flávio Bolsonaro <5%6%Lula da Silva 10-15%6%

$4K 24h vol

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?

4%chance · Yes

$4K 24h vol

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?

39-42%41%42-45%36%<39%15%45%+11%

$4K 24h vol

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September

25 bps increase59%No change40%50+ bps decrease0%25 bps decrease0%

$4K 24h vol

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

No change87%25 bps increase12%50+ bps decrease0%25 bps decrease0%

$3K 24h vol

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?78%

$3K 24h vol

Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?

16%chance · Yes

$3K 24h vol

Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by...?

December 318%September 302%

$3K 24h vol

Abbotsford-Mission By-Election Winner

Kerry-Lynne Findlay56%Person A50%Person B50%Person C50%

$3K 24h vol

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Vote Share?

20-23%46%23-26%33%26%+14%<20%12%

$3K 24h vol

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...?

December 31, 20269%

$3K 24h vol

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Mohammed bin Salman76%Vladimir Putin55%Kim Jong Un30%Aleksandr Lukashenko27%

$3K 24h vol