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Fed Decision in September?

25 bps increase52%No change48%50+ bps increase1%25 bps decrease1%

$9.0M 24h vol

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)93%1 (25 bps)5%2 (50 bps)2%3 (75 bps)0%

$605K 24h vol

Fed rate hike in 2026?

72%chance · Yes

$245K 24h vol

Fed Decision in October?

No change69%25 bps increase27%25 bps decrease3%50+ bps increase1%

$128K 24h vol

Fed rate hike by...?

October Meeting62%September Meeting52%

$76K 24h vol

Largest Company end of September?

NVIDIA95%Company F50%Company G50%Company H50%

$69K 24h vol

Fed Decision in December?

No change45%25 bps increase44%25 bps decrease5%50+ bps increase2%

$43K 24h vol

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA80%Apple13%Alphabet7%Microsoft1%

$42K 24h vol

Fed rate cut by...?

December Meeting6%October Meeting4%September Meeting1%

$39K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

27%chance · Yes

$37K 24h vol

Bank of Russia decision in September?

No Change63%Decrease36%Increase3%

$34K 24h vol

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

25 bps increase99%No change1%50+ bps increase0%50+ bps decrease0%

$30K 24h vol

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

3%chance · Yes

$25K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Pause–Pause–Pause28%Hike–Pause–Pause17%Other11%Hike–Hike–Pause10%

$10K 24h vol

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

25 bps increase98%No change1%50+ bps increase1%50+ bps decrease0%

$9K 24h vol

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%9%6.0%6%5.5%5%7.0%5%

$9K 24h vol

August Inflation US - Annual

3.4%43%3.3%29%3.5%18%3.2%11%

$7K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Other64%Pause–Pause–Pause33%Pause–Pause–Cut1%Pause–Cut–Pause0%

$6K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Other52%Pause–Pause–Pause48%Pause–Pause–Cut1%

$6K 24h vol

Bank of England decision in November?

No change73%25 bps increase27%50+ bps increase1%25 bps decrease1%

$4K 24h vol

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%27% ↓ 3.25%9% ↑ 4.5%6% ↓ 2.5%5%

$4K 24h vol

What will the median home value in Miami be on September 30?

$1.089M - $1.125M73%$1.125M - $1.161M17%$1.053M - $1.089M12%$1.196M+4%

$4K 24h vol

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in September

25 bps increase60%No change40%50+ bps decrease0%25 bps decrease0%

$4K 24h vol

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in October?

No change87%25 bps increase12%50+ bps decrease0%25 bps decrease0%

$3K 24h vol

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.0 - 2.5M33%2.5 - 3.0M28%<2.0M19%3.0 - 3.5M14%

$3K 24h vol

What will the median home value in the US be on September 30?

<$419K65%$419K - $426K29%$426K - $433K6%$433K - $440K1%

$3K 24h vol

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet56%Company A50%Company B50%Company C50%

$3K 24h vol

US recession by end of 2026?

7%chance · Yes

$2K 24h vol

Core PCE YoY - August 2026

3.2%28%3.1%22%≤3.0%17%3.3%14%

$2K 24h vol

What will be the next Fed rate change?

What will be the next Fed rate change?80%

$2K 24h vol

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by September 25?

280M86%270M46%260M3%250M2%

$2K 24h vol

3rd Largest Company end of September?

Alphabet84%Company B50%Company C50%Company D50%

$2K 24h vol

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change75%Decrease27%Increase1%

$2K 24h vol

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?

<$446K81%$454K - $462K5%$446K - $454K4%$462K - $470K3%

$2K 24h vol

August Inflation US - Monthly

0.4%47%0.3%28%≥0.5%10%0.2%7%

$2K 24h vol

Bank of Korea decision in November?

No Change53%25 bps hike44%25 bps cut4%50+ bps cut2%

$2K 24h vol

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on September 30?

<$1.176M74%$1.176M - $1.198M18%$1.198M - $1.220M8%$1.220M - $1.242M7%

$2K 24h vol

Bank of England decision in September?

No change96%25 bps increase4%50+ bps decrease0%25 bps decrease0%

$2K 24h vol

Core CPI YoY - August 2026

2.4%49%2.3%33%2.5%13%2.2%5%

$1K 24h vol

Core CPI MoM - August 2026

0.2%53%0.3%31%0.1%16%≤0.0%6%

$1K 24h vol

USD x Iranian rials End of September?

2.2M+84%2.1-2.2M8%<1.7M2%2.0-2.1M2%

$1K 24h vol

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance · Yes

$1K 24h vol

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change90%25 bps increase5%25 bps decrease4%50+ bps increase0%

$1K 24h vol

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

6%chance · Yes

$966 24h vol

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on September 30?

$335K - $340K32%$340K - $345K28%$345K+13%$325K - $330K12%

$916 24h vol

ISM Services PMI - September 2026

54.0 to 54.933%55.0 to 55.925%53.0 to 53.918%56.0 to 56.916%

$914 24h vol

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%43%4.50-4.99%29%5.50-5.99%20%6.00-6.49%3%

$893 24h vol

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202711%December 31, 20263%

$886 24h vol