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Fed Decision in October?

No change85%25 bps increase14%25 bps decrease0%50+ bps increase0%

$3.9M 24h vol

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase78%No change20%50+ bps increase3%25 bps decrease1%

$162K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

13%chance · Yes

$136K 24h vol

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

25 bps increase84%No Change16%50+ bps increase0%25 bps decrease0%

$113K 24h vol

Fed Decision in January?

No change65%25 bps increase35%25 bps decrease1%50+ bps increase1%

$45K 24h vol

Bank of Russia decision in October?

No Change85%Decrease13%Increase0%

$39K 24h vol

Largest Company end of October 2026?

NVIDIA89%Company F50%Company G50%Company H50%

$37K 24h vol

Bank of England decision in November?

25 bps increase95%No change4%25 bps decrease0%50+ bps increase0%

$24K 24h vol

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%1 (25 bps)1%2 (50 bps)0%4 (100 bps)0%

$23K 24h vol

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA69%Apple26%Alphabet2%Microsoft0%

$16K 24h vol

Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026

2.0-2.4%68%≤1.9%26%2.5-2.9%2%3.0-3.4%0%

$14K 24h vol

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

No change96%25 bps increase4%50+ bps decrease0%25 bps decrease0%

$9K 24h vol

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

81%chance · Yes

$9K 24h vol

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change52%25 bps increase48%50+ bps increase1%50+ bps decrease1%

$6K 24h vol

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

4.0–5.0%96%5.0–6.0%2%3.0–4.0%1%8.0–9.0%0%

$6K 24h vol

What will the median home value in Chicago Metro be on December 31?

$323K - $327K26%$318K - $323K25%$327K+18%$313K - $318K17%

$6K 24h vol

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%14%Above 5%10%Above 6%3%Above 8%3%

$5K 24h vol

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.4%43%5.5%25%5.7%14%6.0%6%

$4K 24h vol

2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?

Apple83%Company B50%Company C50%Company D50%

$4K 24h vol

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

2.6-2.7M36%2.7-2.8M30%2.8M+25%2.5-2.6M14%

$4K 24h vol

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%80% ↑ 4.5%12% ↑ 4.75%5% ↑ 5.0%3%

$4K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause53%Pause-Hike-Hike16%Pause-Pause-Pause10%Hike-Hike-Pause8%

$4K 24h vol

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%4%5.5%3%10.0%2%7.0%2%

$4K 24h vol

Bank of Japan Decision in October?

No change97%25 bps increase3%50+ bps increase1%50+ bps decrease0%

$4K 24h vol

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

No change75%25 bps increase25%25 bps decrease0%50+ bps increase0%

$3K 24h vol

Bank of Israel Decision in October?

No Change94%Decrease6%Increase0%

$3K 24h vol

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.70%57%5.80%37%5.90%22%6.00%14%

$3K 24h vol

Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?

$800-$900B47%$900B-$1.00T35%$1.00-$1.10T16%$700-$800B4%

$3K 24h vol

US recession by end of 2026?

7%chance · Yes

$3K 24h vol

How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 5.20%38%Below 5.15%23%Below 5.10%20%Below 5.00%15%

$3K 24h vol

PPI YoY - October 2026

6.8%+28%6.7%23%6.5%14%6.2%12%

$2K 24h vol

3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?

Alphabet66%Company A50%Company B50%Company C50%

$2K 24h vol

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

-0.3% to -0.1%34%<-0.3%30%0.0% to 0.2%27%0.3% to 0.5%7%

$2K 24h vol

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by October 30?

280M37%270M2%260M1%250M1%

$2K 24h vol

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

≥3.0%69%2.5–3.0%16%2.0–2.5%8%1.0–1.5%3%

$2K 24h vol

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M30%3.0 - 3.5M24%2.0 - 2.5M22%3.5 - 4.0M16%

$2K 24h vol

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%71%5.50-5.99%15%4.50-4.99%11%6.00-6.49%4%

$2K 24h vol

ISM Services PMI - October 2026

53.0 to 53.941%54.0 to 54.920%52.0 to 52.919%57.0 to 57.96%

$2K 24h vol

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 5.09%55%Below 5.05%39%Below 5.00%27%Below 4.95%17%

$2K 24h vol

CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by...?

June 30, 202748%March 31, 202738%December 31, 202621%

$2K 24h vol

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.7%26%Below 4.6%16%Below 4.5%7%Below 4.4%5%

$2K 24h vol

What will be in the UK Budget?

Fuel duty increase12%CGT increase11%Wealth tax5%Land value tax3%

$2K 24h vol

How low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?

Below 4.73%56%Below 4.70%51%Below 4.67%47%Below 4.64%32%

$2K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike68%Hike–Pause–Pause19%Hike–Hike–Hike12%Hike–Hike–Pause3%

$1K 24h vol

October Unemployment Rate

4.2%43%4.1%28%4.3%24%4.0%6%

$1K 24h vol

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5.10%65%5.25%28%

$1K 24h vol

Central Bank of Colombia decision in December

No change57%25 bps increase29%50+ bps increase9%25 bps decrease9%

$1K 24h vol

EU emergency diesel stocks end of December 2026?

30M+85%31M+74%32M+67%33M+47%

$1K 24h vol