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Fed Decision in September?

25 bps increase52%No change48%50+ bps increase1%25 bps decrease1%

$9.0M 24h vol

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

14%chance · Yes

$1.8M 24h vol

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance50%Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%Marco Rubio19%Tucker Carlson3%

$1.6M 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva56%Flávio Bolsonaro41%Augusto Cury2%Renan Santos2%

$1.0M 24h vol

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20%Jon Ossoff16%Gavin Newsom14%Kamala Harris8%

$952K 24h vol

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance24%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%Jon Ossoff11%Marco Rubio9%

$868K 24h vol

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen35%Édouard Philippe28%Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%David Lisnard4%

$772K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets August 28 - September 4, 2026?

220-239100%200-2190%240-2590%260-2790%

$660K 24h vol

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 3160%October 3136%September 3022%September 2111%

$322K 24h vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

14%chance · Yes

$278K 24h vol

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%Benjamin Netanyahu31%Naftali Bennett9%Avigdor Lieberman5%

$197K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets September 3 - September 5, 2026?

65-8950%40-6446%90-1146%115-1391%

$176K 24h vol

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)69%New People (NL)26%Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)4%Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%

$168K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets September 1 - September 8, 2026?

200-21924%220-23924%240-25919%180-19914%

$156K 24h vol

Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder in 2026?

4%chance · Yes

$144K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

2%chance · Yes

$142K 24h vol

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%December 3114%November 309%October 316%

$128K 24h vol

Israel closes its airspace by...?

September 3010%

$123K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson78%Ulf Kristersson22%Jimmie Åkesson0%Ebba Busch0%

$108K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

June 30, 202754%March 31, 202742%December 3122%October 3113%

$100K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202714%December 31, 20267%September 30, 20261%

$99K 24h vol

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

September 3077%September 1871%September 1163%September 759%

$89K 24h vol

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei84%No Head of State5%Reza Pahlavi3%Mahmoud Ahmadinejad2%

$75K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

8%chance · Yes

$62K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

0%chance · Yes

$59K 24h vol

Trump out as President by September 30?

2%chance · Yes

$57K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

August 310%

$50K 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro84%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva13%Augusto Cury2%Renan Santos2%

$42K 24h vol

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep50%R Senate, D House36%Republicans Sweep12%D Senate, R House1%

$40K 24h vol

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%September 301%

$38K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

27%chance · Yes

$37K 24h vol

Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?

49%chance · Yes

$35K 24h vol

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya8%UNRWA5%Volodymyr Zelenskyy4%International Court of Justice4%

$35K 24h vol

Who will Trump speak to in August?

Ursula von der Leyen22%Emmanuel Macron13%Mark Rutte11%Andy Burnham9%

$34K 24h vol

Trump out as President before 2027?

6%chance · Yes

$32K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?

180-19918%200-21918%220-23914%160-17914%

$31K 24h vol

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

December 3196%October 3194%September 3089%September 2484%

$30K 24h vol

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%October 319%September 304%September 151%

$29K 24h vol

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Grüne Vote Share?

5-7%64%3-5%23%7%+14%<3%1%

$29K 24h vol

Berlin State Election Winner

Linke43%CDU41%AfD11%Grüne5%

$27K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

1%chance · Yes

$26K 24h vol

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party89%Republican Party12%

$26K 24h vol

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

September 3088%September 1537%September 1312%September 117%

$25K 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Augusto Cury57%Renan Santos23%Ronaldo Caiado10%Pablo Marçal8%

$24K 24h vol

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: AfD # of seats?

38-4176%42-4518%34-378%46-491%

$22K 24h vol

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

No Meeting by September 3091%Switzerland5%Pakistan3%Qatar1%

$22K 24h vol

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

October 3167%September 3054%

$21K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets September 5 - September 7, 2026?

40-6447%65-8926%<4024%90-1145%

$20K 24h vol