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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 2291%October 2488%October 2884%October 3179%

$1.6M 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election

Flávio Bolsonaro76%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva24%

$743K 24h vol

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen46%Édouard Philippe19%David Lisnard12%Jean-Luc Mélenchon11%

$697K 24h vol

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot50%Benjamin Netanyahu28%Naftali Bennett13%Avigdor Lieberman4%

$602K 24h vol

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom16%Jon Ossoff15%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15%Kamala Harris6%

$523K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets October 13 - October 20, 2026?

340-35948%320-33939%360-3799%380-3992%

$478K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

No Hormuz Agreement90%Hormuz Agreement; D Senate4%Hormuz Agreement; R Senate3%

$413K 24h vol

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3162%December 3138%November 3024%October 3111%

$400K 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Other50%Flávio Bolsonaro <4%47%Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%25%Lula da Silva <4%21%

$371K 24h vol

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep63%R Senate, D House28%Republicans Sweep9%D Senate, R House1%

$337K 24h vol

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%J.D. Vance44%Marco Rubio15%Tucker Carlson3%

$319K 24h vol

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party92%Republican Party9%

$244K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%December 31, 20262%

$239K 24h vol

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance20%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%Jon Ossoff10%Gavin Newsom9%

$227K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

No Hormuz Agreement85%Hormuz Agreement; D Senate8%Hormuz Agreement; R Senate5%

$224K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets October 16 - October 23, 2026?

240-25922%260-27919%220-23917%200-21912%

$218K 24h vol

Next Press Secretary announced by...?

December 3177%November 3055%October 3114%

$173K 24h vol

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance · Yes

$171K 24h vol

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Yashar72%Likud28%Together0%Shas0%

$147K 24h vol

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

<2039%20-2432%25-2920%30-349%

$144K 24h vol

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3128%November 3019%October 315%

$142K 24h vol

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%October 311%

$137K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

13%chance · Yes

$136K 24h vol

France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?

December 313%November 153%October 311%

$125K 24h vol

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)62%Ken Paxton (R)39%

$120K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

Oil ≥ $85; D Senate57%Oil ≥ $85; R Senate31%Oil < $85; D Senate6%Oil < $85; R Senate3%

$114K 24h vol

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an60%Candidate A50%Candidate B50%Candidate C50%

$111K 24h vol

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202747%Netanyahu - Israel PM28%Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea8%Sánchez - Spanish PM5%

$106K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo81%Person D50%Person E50%Person F50%

$102K 24h vol

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

9%chance · Yes

$99K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79%Ulf Kristersson16%Ebba Busch2%Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist2%

$96K 24h vol

Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner

Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia68%List A50%List B50%List C50%

$95K 24h vol

Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory

Remain 40–60%71%Other50%Remain 20–40%19%Remain 60–80%12%

$93K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%November 30, 202764%October 31, 202762%September 30, 202758%

$87K 24h vol

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democratic Party64%Republican Party37%

$80K 24h vol

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro73%Delcy Rodríguez18%No Head of State2%María Corina Machado1%

$78K 24h vol

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 318%October 314%

$77K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance · Yes

$76K 24h vol

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner38%Steve Witkoff38%Abbas Araghchi36%Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani28%

$68K 24h vol

France declares state of emergency by...?

December 3123%October 3114%October 212%

$68K 24h vol

South Carolina Senate Election Winner

Darline Graham Nordone (R)84%Annie Andrews (D)18%

$62K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets October 19 - October 21, 2026?

40-6449%65-8934%90-11410%<407%

$59K 24h vol

Ohio Senate Election Winner

Sherrod Brown (D)64%Jon Husted (R)37%

$59K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

Oil ≥ $80; D Senate62%Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%Oil < $80; D Senate3%Oil < $80; R Senate2%

$50K 24h vol

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance · Yes

$46K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance · Yes

$43K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Luca Niculescu95%Ilie Bolojan0%Alexandru Nazare0%Siegfried Mureșan0%

$42K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3141%November 3030%October 3111%

$42K 24h vol