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US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 2291%October 2488%October 2884%October 3179%

$1.6M 24h vol

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot50%Benjamin Netanyahu28%Naftali Bennett13%Avigdor Lieberman4%

$602K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

No Hormuz Agreement90%Hormuz Agreement; D Senate4%Hormuz Agreement; R Senate3%

$413K 24h vol

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3162%December 3138%November 3024%October 3111%

$400K 24h vol

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 2194%October 3186%November 1569%November 3063%

$294K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%December 31, 20262%

$239K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

No Hormuz Agreement85%Hormuz Agreement; D Senate8%Hormuz Agreement; R Senate5%

$224K 24h vol

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

78%chance · Yes

$171K 24h vol

Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?

December 3128%November 3019%October 315%

$142K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

13%chance · Yes

$136K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending oil below $85 before the midterms?

Oil ≥ $85; D Senate57%Oil ≥ $85; R Senate31%Oil < $85; D Senate6%Oil < $85; R Senate3%

$114K 24h vol

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202747%Netanyahu - Israel PM28%Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea8%Sánchez - Spanish PM5%

$106K 24h vol

Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

9%chance · Yes

$99K 24h vol

Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on...?

October 691%October 1687%October 1884%October 1784%

$90K 24h vol

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3124%October 319%

$89K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202769%November 30, 202764%October 31, 202762%September 30, 202758%

$87K 24h vol

Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?

December 3131%October 314%

$81K 24h vol

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro73%Delcy Rodríguez18%No Head of State2%María Corina Machado1%

$78K 24h vol

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 318%October 314%

$77K 24h vol

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%October 311%

$77K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%chance · Yes

$76K 24h vol

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Jared Kushner38%Steve Witkoff38%Abbas Araghchi36%Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani28%

$68K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3112%October 312%

$66K 24h vol

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3114%November 307%October 311%

$58K 24h vol

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3131%November 3025%November 214%October 3110%

$53K 24h vol

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

June 30, 202760%March 31, 202738%December 3111%

$52K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending oil above or below $80 before the midterms?

Oil ≥ $80; D Senate62%Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%Oil < $80; D Senate3%Oil < $80; R Senate2%

$50K 24h vol

Trump out as President before 2027?

4%chance · Yes

$46K 24h vol

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3133%November 3022%October 3110%

$44K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance · Yes

$43K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3141%November 3030%October 3111%

$42K 24h vol

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202726%December 3113%November 307%October 312%

$42K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

5%chance · Yes

$40K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

7%chance · Yes

$36K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate65%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate32%Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate2%Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate1%

$33K 24h vol

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Ursula von der Leyen64%Mark Rutte34%Emmanuel Macron12%António Guterres12%

$31K 24h vol

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%chance · Yes

$31K 24h vol

US military action against Cuba by...?

December 3110%

$30K 24h vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

16%chance · Yes

$25K 24h vol

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 2199%October 3196%November 3075%

$24K 24h vol

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3131%October 319%

$24K 24h vol

Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

October 3110%

$24K 24h vol

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

Vladimir Putin85%Mohammed bin Salman77%Kim Jong Un13%Aleksandr Lukashenko11%

$23K 24h vol

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China82%No meeting by December 3113%United States3%Russia1%

$20K 24h vol

US imports Russian diesel by...?

December 3145%November 3030%October 313%

$20K 24h vol

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202642%November 30, 202625%October 31, 20267%

$19K 24h vol

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)14%≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)14%Dilution of Iran's Uranium13%1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium10%

$19K 24h vol

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement and oil below $80 before the midterms?

No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate61%No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate34%Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate3%Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate2%

$17K 24h vol