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US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 3160%October 3136%September 3022%September 2111%

$322K 24h vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

14%chance · Yes

$278K 24h vol

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot49%Benjamin Netanyahu31%Naftali Bennett9%Avigdor Lieberman5%

$197K 24h vol

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

September 381%September 470%September 552%September 951%

$162K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

2%chance · Yes

$142K 24h vol

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202725%December 3114%November 309%October 316%

$128K 24h vol

Israel closes its airspace by...?

September 3010%

$123K 24h vol

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

September 3084%October 3175%November 3069%December 3163%

$121K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 3117%October 317%

$121K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

June 30, 202754%March 31, 202742%December 3122%October 3113%

$100K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202714%December 31, 20267%September 30, 20261%

$99K 24h vol

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

September 3077%September 1871%September 1163%September 759%

$89K 24h vol

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei84%No Head of State5%Reza Pahlavi3%Mahmoud Ahmadinejad2%

$75K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

8%chance · Yes

$62K 24h vol

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

October 3127%September 3018%September 2111%September 146%

$59K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

0%chance · Yes

$59K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

August 310%

$50K 24h vol

Crude Oil all time high by...?

December 3110%September 301%

$45K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

27%chance · Yes

$37K 24h vol

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

September 307%September 153%

$36K 24h vol

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya8%UNRWA5%Volodymyr Zelenskyy4%International Court of Justice4%

$35K 24h vol

Who will Trump speak to in August?

Ursula von der Leyen22%Emmanuel Macron13%Mark Rutte11%Andy Burnham9%

$34K 24h vol

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

August 1779%

$34K 24h vol

Trump out as President before 2027?

6%chance · Yes

$32K 24h vol

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

December 3196%October 3194%September 3089%September 2484%

$30K 24h vol

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3116%October 319%September 304%September 151%

$29K 24h vol

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3112%November 306%October 313%September 301%

$27K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

1%chance · Yes

$26K 24h vol

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3126%October 3112%

$26K 24h vol

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

September 3088%September 1537%September 1312%September 117%

$25K 24h vol

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

5%chance · Yes

$22K 24h vol

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

No Meeting by September 3091%Switzerland5%Pakistan3%Qatar1%

$22K 24h vol

U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?

October 3167%September 3054%

$21K 24h vol

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 318%September 302%

$19K 24h vol

US military action against Cuba by...?

December 3114%

$19K 24h vol

Will Iran target Jordan by...?

September 3058%September 1554%

$18K 24h vol

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

7%chance · Yes

$18K 24h vol

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3122%October 319%September 303%

$17K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

10%chance · Yes

$17K 24h vol

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3129%October 3117%September 307%

$17K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3157%November 3044%October 3137%October 1526%

$16K 24h vol

How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 7?

170-18928%190-20927%<17022%210-22917%

$14K 24h vol

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

March 31, 202759%December 31, 202642%October 31, 202619%September 30, 20269%

$13K 24h vol

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf33%Steve Witkoff32%Jared Kushner28%Abbas Araghchi28%

$13K 24h vol

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

5%chance · Yes

$12K 24h vol

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Steve Witkoff96%Jared Kushner95%Donald Tusk88%Mark Rutte28%

$11K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%chance · Yes

$11K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?

16%chance · Yes

$11K 24h vol